Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
