Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
